Have they been watching their own shows? As viewers know, the quitter has unquit-sort of. Last Friday he set a one-day talk-show record, zooming from " Today" to “The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour” to “Nightline.” His book of austere policy prescriptions sits atop The New York Times paperback best-seller list. He’s even turned the network turndown into a rationale for running, saying that he might have to declare just so he can buy ad time. A novel notion: the networks made me do it.
What is Perot up to? As he might say, it’s not rocket science. He wants to be, if not president, at least a player. He wants to repair his image, shredded by his withdrawal in July, and press his " Dallas"-style feud with George Bush. He wants to exert maximum influence with a minimum of media scrutiny of his life. And he can do all of this with a billionaire’s equivalent of pocket change. NEWSWEEK’S new poll shows Americans will play along-up to a point. Only 34 percent want him to be an “active candidate,” compared with 69 percent four months ago. Yet if he does run, 23 percent of those polled say they would vote for him, up 3 points from early this month.
So just when George Bush and Bill Clinton thought the race had become a zero-sum game, Perot is scrambling the equation. Publicly, strategists in both camps insist he won’t be a factor by Election Day. But hunkered down in their bunkers, they indicate otherwise. In Washington office suites, Bush aides met Friday to assess the impact of a revived Perot candidacy. The bottom line: he would be a harsh second voice berating Bush, would muddy the assault strategy against Clinton and do damage in Texas. In the funky-stately former newspaper offices that serve as Clinton’s Little Rock, Ark., domain, top aides worry that Perot could force them to spend heavily in California, dim the candidate’s standing as the champion of “fundamental change” and leave their man a “plurality” president with no mandate.
Perot’s straight talk looks appealing again in a fall campaign of economic obfuscation. In NEWSWEEK’S Poll, only 15 percent of registered voters think Bush is doing enough to address economic concerns; only 31 percent think Clinton is doing enough. In his book, " United We Stand," Perot proposes a harsh mix of spending cuts and increases in taxes on upper-bracket income, gasoline and Medicare and social-security benefits to save a whopping $750 billion over five years. As Bush sprays “character issue” sludge at his foe, as Clinton plods through his cautious game plan-and as both men sweep the $4 trillion federal debt under the rug-Perot can offer himself as the national scold.
Acres of moral high ground are available. The Bush-Clinton contest is displaying all the nobility of purpose of professional wrestling: full of sham demons and tactical grandstanding. Probing for the hold that will immobilize Clinton, the Bush camp each week is giving out-of-town tryouts to attack lines for speeches and TV ads still being written. “We know that attack strategies work,” said a senior administration official, " but sometimes it takes several tries to find the right line."
The latest is an us-versus-them populist theme that might be called the Studebaker Strategy. Clinton, Bush said last week, is an “elitist,” an " Oxford-educated … social engineer" who prefers the European-style collectivist preachments of his academic friends to the entrepreneurial individualism Bush learned when he drove his Studebaker to the Texas oilfields in 1948. A potent theme, but even many Republicans doubt whether he can carry it. “It’s not going to work for a whiny-voiced liberal from Greenwich, Connecticut,” said one conservative GOP activist.
Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign declared itself the winner of a spin-control skirmish over the draft issue. Yet they may be ignoring the larger war over their candidate’s image. When Bush changed his schedule to address a National Guard convention in Salt Lake City, Clinton tore up his schedule and flew there, too. When Bush chose not to criticize Clinton directly, the Democrat shelved his explain-it-all speech. “Bush blinked " crowed aide Paul Begala. In fact, Republicans believe that polls are showing the effects of Clinton’s failure to fully discuss the issue. They may air their first “negative” TV ad this week, and have taped one featuring “Good Morning, Vietnam” disc jockey Adrian Cronauer. " Far from being tired of it, people are only now beginning to listen,” said Bush adviser Charles Black.
With Perot edging back into the race, Bush and Clinton advisers are poring over color-coded maps with a greater sense of urgency. “There’s no place where he turns a Clinton advantage into a disadvantage,” concludes Clinton aide Paul Tully, a veteran of ever Democratic presidential campaign since 1972.
Maybe so, but both sides must be careful as they search for targets of opportunity. Texas is a prime example. Uncharacteristically flush with cash, Democrats planned to spend heavily there to win-or at least tie Bush down. Statewide polls show Bush gaining slightly if Perot runs: the president moves from 2 points behind Clinton to 1 point ahead. But Perot carves deeply into Bush’s support in the Dallas market. To win Texas, Bush would have to spend big bucks against both Clinton and Perot. It could get even dicier. Polls show a Texas three-way race is a dead heat. If Perot wins there, he could theoretically deny his rivals the Electoral College votes needed to win outright. “Perot’s going to throw a kink into it, that’s for sure,” says GOP national committeewoman Penny Butler. “We’re in a vacuum, a never-never land.”
Perot complicates demographic strategy as well. Bush, whose standing among women could hardly be worse, desperately needs every male vote he can get, and polls have shown that Perot draws heavily from younger males in the West and South. Now, belatedly, Bush is urgently trying to appeal to women voters. New GOP focus groups have underscored what everyone already knew: the Houston convention offended women, especially pro-choice suburbanites. “The only thing people seem to remember from that convention are Pat Buchanan and Marilyn Quayle,” frets one Bush insider. To woo suburban women, Bush last week traveled to New Jersey to tout his respectable record of appointing women to his administration.
Both camps now share another obsession: the debate on debates. The first, scheduled for East Lansing, Mich., was canceled when the Bush camp wouldn’t agree to the format devised by the sponsor, the Commission on Presidential Debates. Privately, Clintonites weren’t too upset; they were planning to send their candidate through Michigan this week asking “Where’s George?” But though he remains ahead in polls, Clinton needs the forums. “It gives the challenger a chance to establish presidential stature,” says Kathleen Hall Jamieson of the University of Pennsylvania. “And Clinton starts out as a TV performer, with some advantages.”
In a two-way race against Bush, that is. Squaring off against Perot could be another matter. If Perot gets busy, says commission director Janet Brown he’ll be invited to the next debate, scheduled for Oct. 4 in San Diego. Would he show? For the moment, the betting is no. After all, he’s not a candidate-unless the rest of us make him do it. NEWSWEEK POLL
Would you like Ross Perot to become an active candidate?
CURRENT 6/92 Yes 34% 69% No 52% 25%
If Perot becomes an active cnadidate, would you vote for him?
CURRENT 7/92 Yes 23% 28% No 60% 63%
What do you think is the main reason Ross Perot is considering a run for president?
2% Interested in becoming president 6% Wants to stop George Bush 1% Wants to stop Bill Clinton 43% Interested in promoting his ideas 28% Interested in promoting himself
For this NEWSWEEK Poll, The Gallup Organizaiton interviewed 600 registered voters by telephone on Sept. 18. Margin of error +/-4 percentage points. “Don’t know” and other responses not shown. The NEWSWEEK Poll copyright 1992 by NEWSWEEK, Inc.
